Saturday, October 27, 2007

Florida Real Estate

"Despite a record number of foreclosures and a raft of public auctions of unwanted houses, the upper tier of the real estate market in Florida remains relatively immune to the spreading disaster. Houses and condominiums with price tags of $1 million or more are still changing hands robustly in some of the more exclusive areas. ... [I]n Florida the housing market seems to be not one market, but two. ... Both markets have been buoyed by foreign buyers attracted to the United States because the weak dollar makes American homes comparative bargains. ... Based on the number of sales, the Florida real estate market as a whole ... fell 37.2 percent through Oct. 23 compared with the period a year earlier", NYT, 27 October.

Annualizing sales through 23 Oct., Miami has 63 months housing inventory. Miami real estate has further to fall. I would be surprised to see it bottom in less than 36 months. I wonder if anyone at Goldman Sachs reads the NYT. Hint: the same falling dollar that increased the price of oil, is holding up top tier Miami real estate.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

This multi-tier real estate market has been noted by Moody's Economy.com in thier seminal real estate outlook report. Miami is a "Classic city" with high international demand likely to temper some, but not all, of the decline. Other Florida cities like Orlando may not fair so well.

Anonymous said...

This multi-tier real estate market has been noted by Moody's Economy.com in thier seminal real estate outlook report. Miami is a "Classic city" with high international demand likely to temper some, but not all, of the decline. Other Florida cities like Orlando may not fair so well.